Orb's Orcable 9.5 "The Almost-Last Issue of Season 33" Don't Sweat Stuff

[Orb Farms]

Morning morning morning!

Well, the Qualifiers have posted, and let's just say this was not my year for good luck. But, last year my luck was average, and in Season 1, my Qualifier Post Position draws were fantastic, so it was inevitable that my barn "take one for the team" at some point either this season or next....I anticipate next season things will average out as usual. In fact, last season, my records showed Star of the Desert and Buddha as having the "WORST" luck, ...Appears they both enjoyed a bit better luck in this season's Quals, ....but EVERY time I looked last season, they had post 11, 9, 8, , 12......etc.... While the Qualifier fields are smaller this season, my posts are comparably bad, given the field size, but the trick is to keep pushing forward with Qualifier type horses....If they belong, continue to nominate in Qualifiers....as even a 5th place finish can garner decent points towards the finals.

Next topic, you WILL endure runs of good luck and bad luck, and even when you think you are pushing all the right buttons, and even perhaps dropping horses in class for easier wins, those wins just don't come. This will happen..........but the opposite will happen eventually too. You can press ANY button, and you win, win, win. So, don't expect this system to garner mathematically accurate 100% logic through and through...Just like in real racing, owners, trainers, jockeys, and horses all go through stretches of inexplicable ups and downs.

You make all the calls, and so you have options.....just make the decisions that you can live with, and try to avoid brash decisions, such as putting your best horse in a $40k claimer because she ran poorly 2-3x in a row. Fight through it, and if she won 2 qualifiers earlier in the season, she'll come around!

See you nearer to April 30th for the penultimate Orb's Oracle Issue #10, Season 33.

Best of luck, and Happy Racing,

[Star Of The Desert]

Orb:

While the route qualifiers have closed, post positions have not been assigned yet the horses are still listed in terms of the points they earned. Not sure when the races actually close but would think it would be 1 or 2 days before the actual races, so we don't yet know if we are lucky or unlucky in the PP draw.



Burky

[Buddha Farms]

The post position bias is like global warming. Most reasonable people understand it's devastating impact but there are those who deny or choose to ignore. In both situations, ignorance is bliss..

[King G Racing]

Ok Orb with out bashing you could you explain this to me... You write some neg stuff but the tell everyone fight thru it.... I don't understand... That's one reason why I said before practice what u preach... Heres why I say that... You just posted neg stuff then turn around and say fight thru it.. But now that you see you maybe passed I Trainer standings You up and say I am done for the month because other stables have more horses then me and I don't want to lose my win % numbers on wins. Now to me that isn't fighting that's the easy way out since u may lose your spot in standings... Why Not fight thru it as u tell everyone else.. Winning % is nice but not the main thing here IMO. your across the Board % means a lot.... So I guess to sum it up how can u tell others to fight thru something when u take the easy road out so your Win % doesn't take a hit... Which there is no prize for. trainer standings there is a prize... Beats me and I will leave the rest unposted.......

[Orb Farms]

What negative stuff did I write? I am totally puzzled here

[Orb Farms]

I just fought through the QUALIFIERS, and I am going to continue to fight through the QUALIFIERS this week. please re-read

EDIT: In case there was any confusion in my original post, the word QUALIFERS was stated 6 times.

AS far as my stable, I did the math, when the midnight racing changed, I knew this would be inevitable, so I am beefing up for next season.....Last time I checked, I am allowed to do that. Remember, I have 50 horses compared to 200-300. It's an amazing feat that it went this far..... Further, I already have requests to give some horses away to newbies, so that will be good for racing.

I will continue to fight my fringe Qualifiers in classic and route.....as I stated above....as I have several on the cusp

Best,

[Orb Farms]

The post position bias is like global warming. Most reasonable people understand it's devastating impact but there are those who deny or choose to ignore. In both situations, ignorance is bliss..

Some horses can overcome it better than others. Temple of Sakkara could not overcome posts 8 (6F) and Post 9 (5F) in his last 2 sprint quals, but I have seen it done.


While the route qualifiers have closed, post positions have not been assigned yet the horses are still listed in terms of the points they earned. Not sure when the races actually close but would think it would be 1 or 2 days before the actual races, so we don't yet know if we are lucky or unlucky in the PP draw.

Burky


Burky, to your point, I was referring to qualifiers.... Remember, there may be good payoffs in particular for lucky posts on finals day, we spend $500-$1000 or thereabouts on the Qualifiers leading up to the finals.... I was referring to those post positions too.....if that makes sense. I track only post positions in Qualifiers now, in seasons past, I tracked every race, and it just was too much

Orb

[Star Of The Desert]

Sorry Orb I thought you were referring to the finals, not the PP's of thE qualifiers and was just letting you know that the PP's had not been set . When I wrote that this morning I had not had my coffee yet.


Burky

[King G Racing]

Yes Orb you can do as u wish here... But telling people to fight thru it Well I said before n I say again Practice what you preach its very simple.

[Orb Farms]

King G you make a great point - I oftentimes do NOT practice what I preach, not always easy to do......however, in the QUALIFIERS, I am guessing I spent as much If not more than barns with 4x to 5x more horses than me on Qualifiers. So, as per this issue of Orb's Oracle, which asked people not to give up on their BEST and VERY best horses......I Did practice what I am preaching.
The penultimate sentence of the post was "If they belong, continue to nominate in Qualifiers....as even a 5th place finish can garner decent points towards the finals."

You also have to understand that I threw away my midnight racers, before the midnight races existed. I placed 7 horses in them, 6 got claimed. In fact, 60% of a horse I nominate under $20k gets claimed! I am no longer suited this season to compete. What would you do???? I would need every horse in my barn to win 3-4 times in April, and as they all have multiple wins, that's just not going to happen! This is my fault, not the site, or anyone else....Should not have done that, but you cannot tell me it is prudent to try to compete with 2 of the best in history, both of whom have HUGE barns....not happening.

Case in point - Viking Hike. ZERO qualifier wins, but I continue to rack up 2nd, 4th, and 5th place finishers. In the end, she won the most points of anyone in her finals division. While I believe to attract points specific to the finals, jockey selection should be based on Quals points, this was shot down with unanimous "hell no" last season.....regardless, I assured the horse of "a chance" in the finals!

Best of luck to all, and Burky, without my coffee I am a useless waste of flesh and bones....totally understand!

Orb

[Berkshire Barns]

"While I believe to attract points specific to the finals, jockey selection should be based on Quals points, this was shot down with unanimous "hell no" last season.....regardless, I assured the horse of "a chance" in the finals!"


So Jockeys in champ finals are based on earnings now? or are they based on points accrued through Quals?

I'm lost now lol

Thanks for clarifying...

[Buddha Farms]

Berk - Points determine the jockey draw order.

Orb has clearly identified why the qualifier/champ series may not draw as many participants as expected. First, obviously it takes a quality horse to compete, which takes classy breeders or high cost leasing. Morning glories can quickly suck down the account balance. Second, it takes a substantial bankroll to pay the entry fees in order to accumulate points. Obviously you will not get the advantageous posts in every race so you have expect that you won't hit the board sometimes. In a season you may have to spend $50 - $100 for ONE horse in entry fees and hope you have enough points for the big dance. Then when you make the finals, you are once again at the mercy of the post position gods. This is a big ask for small stables on smaller budgets. I do applaud those who take the plunge (ATM and Flip come to mind).

Well written thread Orb, keep up the good work!

[Berkshire Barns]

Thanks Buddha, I appreciate it...I understand now what he meant.

[Lone Star Stables]

Jocks are by points -

[Atm Stables]

Berk - Points determine the jockey draw order.

Orb has clearly identified why the qualifier/champ series may not draw as many participants as expected. First, obviously it takes a quality horse to compete, which takes classy breeders or high cost leasing. Morning glories can quickly suck down the account balance. Second, it takes a substantial bankroll to pay the entry fees in order to accumulate points. Obviously you will not get the advantageous posts in every race so you have expect that you won't hit the board sometimes. In a season you may have to spend $50 - $100 for ONE horse in entry fees and hope you have enough points for the big dance. Then when you make the finals, you are once again at the mercy of the post position gods. This is a big ask for small stables on smaller budgets. I do applaud those who take the plunge (ATM and Flip come to mind).

Well written thread Orb, keep up the good work!

The early part of the season I was focusing soley on my creates getting into the finals as I have half my stable into creates. That being said I've tried to take advantage of breeding and deposit bonuses, although to a nominal amount and been fortunate to breed or obtain some nice horses. I will say it does get pricey and that you almost have to win or place at some point to continue to put money each week. Without it, and being a small stable the 10K loses and most other races without a 10K win it gets hard. I've managed to sneak a couple into the finals given the current standing required that I only hit the board 1-2 times to get on the top 12.