Horse Rating V Breeding Value...

[Bobby Dazzler]

Was just thinking about this and thought i would pop this on here and see what stables thoughts are on the subject. We see many horses for sale with high HR and 5 EX in there confirms. Now in my opinion every horse with a decent set of confirms has a value but how do we put a value on confirms? I know stables used to work it on a points system EX=5 VG=4 G=3 F=2 P=1. Do we put a value of 2 dollars a point on the confirms? I know everyone has there own opinion on these things. But to me personally ANY 5 x EX horse is worth a min of 75k because within the confirms and the right match there is Champions in waiting to be born. Yes i know not every foal bred will be a Champion dam not every horse will even see the track but it surely increases your chances of getting that next BIG HORSE in your stable. We all have got some decent horses with nice HR but sometimes they dont seem to fire. I have had many stables get in touch with me and ask why their high HR races are not firing on the track. My opinion on this is that some horses need time and need to mature before they can preform on track and some need to have there Equipment tweaked to make them more competitive on track. But also you have Track, track conditions, jockey, gate and instructions taken into account not to mention the competition. So you can have the highest RATED horse on the site and still have no luck in the race due to all these factors. But on the other hand when it comes to CONFIRMS for those of you that dont know what these are its the horses Athleticism, Bone Strength, Intelligence, Balance. Soundness This are all breeding attributes which in my personal opinion add value to any horse no matter what the HR is in the horse as i have had 94 HR with EX VG EX VG EX confirms and bred some nice horses and many with HR under 100 that have bred Stakes and Graded winning horses. You only have to look at the Sales Ring horses to see that there is very few on the horses in the sales ring are rated over 100. Why because HR means absolutely nothing when it comes to breeding Champions its all down to the confirms and what it will pass on down the breeding tree. I think that breeders are under valued by many players as they are constantly looking for the super fast worktimes with a decent HR and let the confirms and breeding potential totally breeze by them. I have always said this game is not a sprint because you need to build your stable for the future as in getting a breeding barn in place as well as numerous racing barns in place.

Bobby Dazzler - Garry

[Socal Racing]

The whole breeding dynamic has changed since i was last here. With the Horse ratings and viewable confirms I'm lost. I do not know their meaning or value as it pertains to breeding. Thanks for your post Garry. If others would add their opinions and/or experiences I would find it very helpful.

[And More Racing Stable]

Let me start with this Don. IMO the dynamics of breeding have not changed since you were here before. The horses that previously would have produced quality still will and those that would have produced junk still will. What has changed is only that we now have some visibility into what the strength of the attributes are that a horse inherited from its parents. Let's take an extreme example...if you breed 2 5-EX and you get a 5-EX then the foal got something in the range of the best possible attributes the parents could pass. If you breed those same 5-EX parents and the foal gets all 5 "good" conforms then you can assume the horse got something weaker than the best of the parents attributes.

Now let's consider the quality of attributes. IMO it's a mistake to think that a 5-EX is automatically a guaranteed producer. If you judge by nothing else other than conforms and always use 5-EX or close breeders then statistically speaking you probably should have at least some success but you will also have disappointments and you will also miss out on some potentially quality breeders. Again I'll use an extreme example...what if you have a 5-EX that comes from a family that is horrible. Nobody in the family has ever produced much of anything that can run. IMO that family might be passing it's best attributes to offspring but the attributes they have to pass just aren't any good. On the other hand, horses who were outstanding race horses from solid producing families might only have "good" conforms themselves but those good conforms might be better than the EX conforms of a crappy family.

Here's a couple examples of my top performing breeders using average earnings per offspring race as the guideline.

Magic Daddy was a champion race horse who won 11 stakes races and over 1.5mil in earnings. His foals so far average 12143 average earnings per race with 2 stakes winners and 12 wins in 55 starts. Here's his conforms...
Athleticism - Good Bone Strength - Good Intelligence - Good Balance - Very Good Soundness - Fair

Noble Lady BMS won the eliminator her 3yo season, she won 11 stakes races and almost 2.4mil in earnings. She is the 4th leading all time earner at DD at this point and is less than 300k from being the all time leader. Her foals to date have 11699 average earnings per start with 2 stakes winners. Here's her conforms... Athleticism - Very Good Bone Strength - Good Intelligence - Good Balance - Good Soundness - Good

Both come from solid producing families and were outstanding race horses themself. The conforms might not look as good as others but the attributes being passed may well be better than some with better conforms. So, again, I will still say the dynamics haven't changed...it's still about pedigree and race performance that makes for the best breeders. IMO the conforms basically tell you how well those attributes are passing down from generation to generation but not whether those conforms are quality or not.

Now, on the horse rating front...I pay no attention at all to horse rating when it comes to breeding. I believe that horse rating is a factor of "potential" in a horse's racing ability but just like fast works it's no guarantee. I don't know that the higher the rating is the more potential a horse has but I do believe that the further they get under 100 the less potential they have regardless of their works. Bear in mind that I'm talking about potential to be a quality class race horse but I've seen many low ratings who still win lots of races in claiming races. Does it take a super high rating to be good? NO! The aforementioned Magic Daddy and Noble Lady BMS are 100.25 and 99.50 respectively.

I hope this helps some but keep in mind this is my opinion and opinions are like...well you know...everybody has one!

[Socal Racing]

Thank you AMRS. That was extremely helpful. Thank your for taking the time to reply