Early Ability Guide

[Thunder Downunder]

This isn't a question so much as an observation.

Q. Can a stable predict the ability of a horse after one regular train?

I have trained a countless number of horses from scratch now. I always give them a 1 3/8m lpg first up. I have noted that low meters (50) rise at various levels. Fitness, of course, will always be 100 after the first train. My observation concerns the other 4 meters and this is what I have seen...

The maximum amount each meter will rise is 15 percentage points or 65% total, however I have only seen Speed rise to the maximum. The other meters have varied from 59-64. If any meter is on 59 after the first train, this horse is a non-performer, conversely if Speed is on 65, this horse will be a sprinter but if Speed is 65 and the rest are 59-60 range, you have a horse that will go like the wind for 4F then fall in a heap. If STM/END are in the 62-64 range along with high Speed, you have a very good sprinter. If STR is in the 62-64 range and Speed is 63-64, you have a good route horse. If SPD/STR/END/STM are all in the 63-64 range, you have a champion route horse. If any one of them is in the 59-60 range, you have a 5K claimer at best.

I am keen to hear from other stables what they notice with their horses after the initial train compared to their first workout/race. The more data, the more exact the results. I guess it really doesn't matter what the outcome is after the first train, but it may give you early options whether to spend a dollar on Vet fees, enter it in an Open Allowance unworked or send it to the bottom feeder classes early without wasting too much money on it, it may even be a guide to what adds are needed without numerous tests.

And they thought the Da Vinci Code was tough

[Ginkamo Stables]

Thinking is good!! But sometimes all it provides is extra work. One of my best, 1st work, horses had 2 59's in his 1st day work. I haven't got the data from my older horses but I'll send what I have going on right now, a little later.

[Ginkamo Stables]

spd stm str end 1st work 1st 5F thoughts
American Amber 64 62 60 59 22.66 100.52 poor filler s can

Bad Girl 63 62 63 63 101.30 Vpoor

Billy the Kid 64 59 61 63 21.72 58.61 tops

Calypso Rythm 63 61 63 59 21.88 59.30 not bad

Chica Boom 65 62 63 61 22.70 100.63 not good

Good Intentions 65 62 60 63 1st work tomorrow

Happy Girl 62 61 60 62 22.00 59.39

Happy Heart 65 59 62 59 58.67 good

Hit or Miss 65 60 62 62 21.95 59.27 No top fillys

Junsang 62 62 60 61 21.69 58.75 hope equip helps

Mashimaro 64 60 60 63 58.66 good

Meander 62 60 61 59 22.02 59.83 not much

Procrastinator 63 63 63 61 21.83 59.23 ????

Salamania'sFury 65 62 59 61 22.30 59.88 disappointing

Sheza Duchess 64 59 63 63 22.10 59.38 ????

Why don't these things ever line up, properly. They look good when you copy them then come out all screwed up on here?!

[Phyl Farm Inc.]

Looks ok Ray. I find your numbers very interesting. Maybe that first work isn't a true indicator like I thought too. Who knows? Only DD I guess. Good Luck...

[Thunder Downunder]

Thanks for the data Ray. Looks like I have to analyze and document my own observations more. Thanks for the scepticism Sal Even Edison had his critics.

[Razor River Farms]

Thunder,

Thanks as always for your analysis. You are truly the Professor of DD!

I went back and looked at the first train numbers for Razor Ralph and Razor Rachel. As it happens they are still available because after their first 1 3/8 lpg I naively or impatiently ran them in a 4f workout.

Anyway, Razor Rachel was Stamina 63, Strength 59, Speed 68 and Endurance 60. She ran 4f in 48.2. Obviously her speed number was a bit out of whack. Next time she trained with all meters between 95 and 100 except for fitness at 88 (I admit I didn't know what I was doing the first month). She ran 5f in 57.97

Razor Ralph was Stamina 64, Strength 62, Speed 61 and Endurance 64. He ran the 4f in 46.6.

Hope this helps the research.

[Thunder Downunder]

Thanks Razor for the numbers. Going on Ray's and your initial meters, it certainly looks like I need to analyze them more or there isn't a correlation between the first train and the ability of a horse. It is an interesting exercise anyway.

[Thunder Downunder]

Thought I'd drag this out of the cesspool and update it.

After copying and pasting the meter percentages after each horses initial train I have come to the following conclusion....

<drum roll please>


There is absolutely NO correlation between the initial first train and the ability of a horse


Oh well... back to the drawing board... but I have run out of chalk!