Paradigms

[Vagabundo Stables]

Hey all,

Recieved a message earlier and it brought to mind some questions I've been having as to the new changes and the effects they are having on what at once were understood standards as follows:


1. Why is there such a broad range of discrepancy between workout times and race times. I've had horses run surprising faster in races than workouts and disappointingly slower. Since I've been lucky enough to get a majority of the jockeys I train with in the races and did a majority of my training on fast/firm days shouldn't the times be somewhat similar even. This seems to me to make workouts useless except to get the meters straightened out for racing. I've actually put horses in maidens at different differences to see how they perform because I no longer trust workouts as a relationship to racing ability.

2. You may answer the first with oh your horse doesnt or doesnt have heart to compete against other horses so there is the difference. So I wonder do horses gain and lose heart from race to race now? I sound like I'm complaing. I'm not. Just trying to understand. Is there some sort of level of randomness involved in the races now more than there has been that would cause a horse to perform differently in one race from the other even though same meters, surface, distance, jockey, instructions? I actually had a horse with a 22 point change in speed rating under those conditions. Like I said i'm not complaining this season I've already won half I won last season in 2 1/2 months. One thing I took pride in through what I did last season even though I was new was my win percentage and thought that I had a good understanding of what races my horses could win. I understand that I started a lot of mediocre yearlings that didn't help my win percentage, but I'm surprised by horses that win even though I had no hope for and horses that I thought would win easily fail miserably.

3. I mentioned this before. Why would and is it physically possible for a horse to run faster with more weight again with same conditions jockeys etc...Is this a side effect of the upcoming changes where horses will carry more weigth based on wins...basically setting up that some horses will be able to handle weight easier than others?

The only solution I can see to these is that yes there is more randomness to the game this season. So that races wont be so predicable and any one particular horse will not dominate a class? I kind of hope this is the case much to my accounts demise I like the idea of a little more randomness just not sure to the point that I'm constantly dumbfound as to what to do with my horses.

I'll shut up now so you all can comment or make any smart remarks you deem necessary.


Brian

[Cybertooth]

Good points

Yes, the horses are running wacky. I don't really care too much what the programmers have done to the game this season...but I honestly think that two years is enough time to have become satisfied with the programming. It is time to leave the horses alone. Every programming change alters every horse in every stable. No one has the same horse from one season to the next...it is an entirely different horse with the same name.

Of course, as the season progresses everything will sort itself out. The cream will rise to the top and trial times won't matter. The race results will tell the story.

[Dollar-in-mind Partnership]

i dont much take notice of times as there are too many variables to ponder on
pace,race position, clear run, running too wide, riding too close to rails and taken back by a weakening horse, if ur lucky u can run the perfect race,ergo fast times result ,ground also is a factor too...i found from early on in DD ur horse may run on the whole faster in near perfect race -1 sec or more and slower in a badly judged or incident packed race upto 5 secs slower..its all down to the luck of the draw ,jockey instructions, or the jock chosen...
im also sure the kickback in some form maybe factored in too..

race result maybe more of a useful indicator than times as some horses win no matter what the time is ..that they just like winning

please be advised this is not the truth ..just an idea from an inept trainer
who still doesnt understand US racing even after all this time(2yrs)

hope ur next runner is a winner

Paul

[Ginkamo Stables]

Dumbfounded!! Good word!! So I'm not the only one. Big Plans the horse is a prime example. Dropped from a 97 to an 85 in races that should have suited him better, races he had run 97's in prior?
I only consider works before Dec. 14 as reasonable. I'm hoping those after will start making sense soon. Equipment changes after that I write probably and maybe beside and look for further confirmation.

[Stine Stables]

I'm not even looking at workout/race times before Jan 1. I'm definitely not paying much attention to workout/race times between Dec 14 and Dec 31. If I go back prior to Dec 14, I only usually looking at which jockey and equipment.
In my conversations with a couple of other stables I'm finding that workout times are not of much use when it comes to what their race times will be. Their use of the workouts seems to be only for determining jockey preference, instruction and equipment change, only using the times to figure out which changes are producing better times. Don't think that because your horse runs a great mile in workouts that its a possible track record holder. I know because I have one that has dropped more that a second of it times in workouts between Jan 2 and Jan 10. (almost 1.5 secs since Nov 10) But the horse can hardly limp around the track in a race. I've only had the horse for a couple of weeks so I'm still working out the kinks.

[Cannorth Stables]

Probably near ALL, IF, not ALL stables are going through the same ordeal this season. That is, wondering what has happened to some of their decent horses with their sudden EXTREME changes at the track. I know I am....... But.... I sure like the ones that went from good to better, a couple anyway !!

Therefore, 52.70% of my horses are going through wo's & many 2yo's continue to go through wo's testing different jocks/ground/distances. Will it help, are these wo's going to be correct? I DO NOT Know, but, I hope so, time will tell. (I see some horses here now perform better in wo's with a different add, and some now with no adds. Maybe I never had the correct add in the first place ?) Is it possible that even adds need to be re-checked on a horse each NEW season for a horses maximum performance, along with different Jocks/instructions ???).

As Stine mentioned, horses with a good time in wo's (more so unraced horses) don't always perform the same way at the track.

Why the dramatic sudden drop in performances for some horses among stable members has me pondering immensely.

In the mean time, I'll continue to iron out the perfections & imperfections for each horse in the stable, in hopes of seeing an improvement.


Thanks D/D for a Great confusing/frustrating/maddening & exciting game !! (just like being in the real world)


By the way, these are some of the emotions I go through playing this game. I am sure....... each and every stable member experiences the same emotions at some point along the way.


BOL to each & every stable member.

[Phyl Farm Inc.]

Yes, I agree things are a bit more confusing now. Add to that fact I have no idea what Paradigms means and you can see that I'm totally confused.

[Cannorth Stables]

Paradigm(s):

par·a·digm (parÆÃ d#mÅ, -dim), n.
1. Gram.
a. a set of forms all of which contain a particular element, esp. the set of all inflected forms based on a single stem or theme.
b. a display in fixed arrangement of such a set, as boy, boy's, boys, boys'.
2. an example serving as a model; pattern.
[1475–85; < LL parad#gma < Gk parádeigma pattern (verbid of paradeiknýnai to show side by side), equiv. to para- PARA-1 + deik-, base of deiknýnai to show (see DEICTIC) + -ma n. suffix]
—Syn. 2. mold, standard; ideal, paragon, touchstone.

[Phyl Farm Inc.]

Huh!